btov just turned 20. What will the world look like when we turn 40? A not-to-be-taken-entirely-seriously preview.


17th July 2020
  • Founders and teams who are deeply purpose-driven
  • Both team and VC need to decline all offers along the way to cash out and must play the long game

[1] On that note: Our 40th anniversary portfolio day will take place on Thursday, 6th September 2040, please save-the-date. (I have three young children; I need to plan ahead a bit.)

[2] That will be the case if Amazon keeps growing at 25% p.a. on average, and the world’s GDP at 3%. And Amazon would have to increase productivity by 20% p.a. At current productivity levels, it would otherwise have over 91m employees. (After all, we have all seen those business plans with constant, never ending growth, haven’t we?)

[3] With >12 trillion cash on hand (having grown 30% p.a.), you can pay off a lot of debt.

[4] Remember that Jeff Bezos thought of naming Amazon “” initially, and this URL still leads to today.

[5] See Google’s mission statement: I remember reading somewhere (can someone help me verify this?) that when Google was started in 1998, they estimated it would take them about 200 years to complete their mission. Depending on how you define “all the world’s information” I would argue it’s safe to assume this process to follow a power law, so all the “easily organizable” information should already be accessible by 2040.

[6] A personal note: I don’t mean this is in a negative way. The fact that large US companies are built and destroyed at a much faster rate is usually seen as a weakness of the European economy. Europe is home to many old, mid-sized family-owned businesses though that have learned to adapt and be flexible in order to survive long-term. Subjectively, I have always considered SAP to have retained some of this spirit, despite its size.

[7] Due to abuse, the authorities now supervise startups and their communication. Made a tech break-through? File your ad-hoc on the SEC blockchain.

This blogpost was originally published on Medium on July 17th, 2020.

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